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Lifetime Careers in IT? 568

CyPlasm asks: "MSN Careers had this article posted the other day that asked about a "Lifetime Career in IT: Is It Possible?" Does the average Slashdot reader think they will retire (with a pension, benefits, etc) after a long and successful career in IT?"
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Lifetime Careers in IT?

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  • Certainly (Score:5, Insightful)

    by sparkhead ( 589134 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:06PM (#5177667)
    We have a few lifers, and they're always the source of plenty of good information. Don't have to know the latest languages to be good at thinking about how things work.

    Not me though. I'm going to claw my way to middle management and worry about TPS reports.
  • by cylcyl ( 144755 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:08PM (#5177689)
    The million+ folks who got laid off since the burst of the dot-com bubble and have not yet gotten a new job say "NO"!
  • by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:08PM (#5177694)
    After spending 20 years as one of the lowest paid (yet consistently employeed) network/sys admins on the planet, yes, I will get a pension, benefits, etc.
  • by saskboy ( 600063 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:10PM (#5177711) Homepage Journal
    The odds of finishing an IT career... are getting better. There are more people retiring very soon, and with that comes lots of senior positions that will be vacant, and ripe for the picking.

    Settle into a company, make yourself indispensible, and you are set... If we avoid nuclear war, and stop using SUVs...
  • by Marqui ( 512962 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:11PM (#5177715)
    Because at the rate IT firms close and layoff, we will have to keep working! Not all companies offer any retirement benefits at all. We will just have to keep on working, and do some smart investing if possible!
  • Huh? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Otter ( 3800 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:11PM (#5177721) Journal
    Maybe I'm missing something but:

    1) Why on Earth not? The article doesn't offer any reason to doubt the rather obvious conclusion that, of course, people will have lifelong careers in IT. Except that "MSN Careers member EsTeeJay" thinks otherwise.

    2) Maybe I'm nitpicking, but why is a pension a prerequisite for a lifetime career? I'm not holding my breath for a pension but still expect to spend a lifetime doing what I do.

    The only reason I can think of to doubt the long-term potential of an IT career is that systems may become so intuitive there's no need for a admins. But given the way software progresses, one doesn't see much chance of that.
  • by BaronCarlos ( 34713 ) <`moc.edagirbkeeg' `ta' `todhsals'> on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:13PM (#5177740)
    In my experience, the only success I have seen in climbing the corporate ladder in IT is through a select few vectors:

    Consulting: You work for a consulting firm and merc yourself out to the highest bidder. (Benefits: Lots of money, though little in corporate benefits (Stock, Options, etc.))

    Management: The top of the IT ladder is CTO. Most companies have them now. (That puts you on the Board of Directors, and a VP after your name). (Disadvantage: You are now a technical manager, not a technician.)

    Company Leap Frog: Work for Company A, beef up your resume and jump to Company B (higher up the corporate food chain). Work for Company B for awhile and do the same and jump to Company C (again with an increase in Title and Wage) and so on and so forth. (I have worked longer in my company the Every Director/VP in my building. Most have not worked here longer then 2 years.)

    Conclusion: It is possible, even using tactics found in other departments. But is the end result really worth it? (Even if it is what you want to do for the rest of your life?)

  • by coyote-san ( 38515 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:14PM (#5177749)
    Ironically, most of the people I know in their 30s and 40s chuckle at the young turks who don't realize that their "hot new paradigm" (or language or whatever) is the same recycled cat shit that's been around - and dismissed - for years. They'll all very much aware of the new stuff that really matters, but are also aware of the true cost of changing legacy systems and don't make changes casually.
  • by RetiredMidn ( 441788 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:14PM (#5177752) Homepage
    Defined-benefit pensions have been in the process of disappearing for years; if you're working in IT (or anywhere else, for that matter), take charge of your own life and start looking to your 401k and/or IRA.

    I expect to be working or playing at this stuff until retirement age, but I'll probably detach myself from the IT rat-race before then only because it's a rat-race, not because of my ability to contribute.

    Writing software is rewarding; writing software for business sucks (after a while; 25+ years in my case).

  • County employee (Score:1, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:16PM (#5177774)
    Considering I'm a county employee, I feel pretty confident that I can maintain my career in IT (GIS area) for my entire stay here. And in 30 years I retire with an excellent retirement package. While everyone was jumping around jobs in the IT field, I was studying and going to school. I'm still going to school and plan to for quite some time.
  • IT in Government (Score:5, Insightful)

    by JackL ( 39506 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:16PM (#5177775)
    I'm pretty sure I could have had a lifetime IT career working in state government. Slashdot has had the private sector "cutting edge development" vs. "behind the times" government work before. It is basically personal preference - exciting and short term vs less exciting but stable. Many associate government work with being boring and while the database I maintained certainly wasn't exciting, it's impact on the state's medical system was.

    So yes, lifetime IT jobs probably exist and they don't necessarily have to be boring. It really depends on what you are looking for.

  • Why not? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by fuzzybunny ( 112938 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:21PM (#5177817) Homepage Journal

    My grandfather is 90. He is in perfect mental and physical health, and "officially" worked as an attorney until a few years ago. He still occasionally takes depositions and adjudicates some lesser disputes.

    Aside from the fact that that side of the family has a history of longevity, I believe that the two reasons why he kept going were (a) he didn't feel like quitting, because he enjoyed his job, and (b) he worked in a field (partner in a mid-sized law firm) where nobody could dictate to him when to retire. His expertise grew over time.

    In Europe, a lot of societies which have historically cherished the idea of retirement at age 65 with a generous pension are starting to re-think this concept, primarily because the pension funds simply won't be able to keep up with the glut of baby boomers retiring soon, but also because peoples' attitude towards work is changing.

    Lack of job security nowadays means that, while you may show professionalism towards an employer, you do not display the traditional "loyalty for life". As I can tell, it is in the nature of companies to act in a manner they perceive to be economically rational (regardless of whether it is or not)--this takes precedence over keeping old Smithers but-he's-only-got-2-years-to-go-until-retirement around at all costs. Concurrently, people are discovering that they are far more mobile in the labor market, recession or not, than they once were, and employers generally seem to recognize that fact.

    Especially in IT, where actual hands-on know-how may become obsolescent fairly quickly, but experience in how to manage that know-how (project management, design, business-side consulting, etc.) grows over time. I can imagine that we will see an increase in the number of over-40 employees going part-time consultant, and simply not quitting at 65. I don't know about you, but I love my line of work, and can't really imagine just stopping dead in my tracks one day to go play shuffleboard with a bunch of walking corpses.

    So a classical "employment-until-pension"? No. A "job for life"? Definitely. I don't know about you, but I would love to still be a part-time IT consultant when I'm 70.
  • by once1er ( 643921 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:22PM (#5177827) Homepage
    I was talking with a friend of mine the other day, and we agree, sadly, that due to a deeping interest in, and an understanding of computers by the average person (although, we could contend that the average person still doesn't know ziltch, but thats another reply) that the average IT will become more of a janitorial position. The way I like to describe what I do to people who don't have a clue is to say, "Imagine your office manager. That is pretty much what I do, but it's all on computers." So if you know any office managers or janitors with comfortable retirement packages, I'd like that job myself. So we were thinking it would be a good idea to form some sort of union, or official guild. I don't know if there is such a thing at this point, anyone know? Being the son of a union family, I realize the immense comfort that this sort of instituion provides to a family (if the contract is negotiated correctly), and the horrible feeling of doubt when the contract is up (i.e. PMA and ILWU) however, something sort of collective barganing would be in order I'd think. I would be first to apply to such an orgization, and avid fighter for our rights to a comfortable future.
  • by CosmicDreams ( 23020 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:24PM (#5177842) Journal
    I've always believed that IT wouldn't sustain an entire career for me. So I've worked up a contingency plan:

    Work till I'm forty, teach the rest of my life. I know by that time I'll want to pursue what REALLY is important to me, giving back. And besides, I'll be fired due to age discrimination anyway.
  • by tshak ( 173364 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:24PM (#5177844) Homepage
    I know in their 30s and 40s chuckle at the young turks who don't realize that their "hot new paradigm" (or language or whatever) is the same recycled cat shit that's been around - and dismissed - for years.

    Many times it has to do with the right implementation of said paradigm. I won't go into detail, but most of us know that the concept of an abstract syntax machine was around long before Java became the next big Fad. But implementation, market forces, etc. all play a part in the buy-in of a technology.
  • by greymond ( 539980 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:27PM (#5177868) Homepage Journal
    Honestly, how many people in MANY OTHER FIELDS got layed off within the last 2 years? Granted a lot of people in the Silicon Valley Tech industry got layed off, but that includes more than just "IT" workers.

    Sales Managers, Marketing Employees, Graphic Designers, Gophers, PC Technicians, programmers, and Administrators were layed off.

    Some of the Marketing people I know that were layed off had been with the company for over 15 years. You can be layed off or fired in any field - it doesn't matter. As long as your smart, have a plan, and quite a bit of luck - you can get your way through anything (almost).
  • by sbillard ( 568017 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:31PM (#5177887) Journal
    IT professionals still wonder what to expect if they choose to devote their entire career to IT.
    Since 1987 I've endured thankless all-nighters and many wasted weekends to satify the insane schedules of inexperienced project managers. I've also had the crushing responsibility that comes with installing and supporting systems that multi-billion dollar companies rely on. I've been shit on as a consultant and exhalted as a savior and treated like a hero. I have experienced a full-spectrum of environments. I am now 35 years old.
    But the one thing that has been consistent thoughout this whole time is this: I love what I do. Maddening at times - yes. Mundane - yep. But almost always interresting. If you dont have passion for technology, you wont last.
    "You have to keep yourself trained even if management will not pay for it," says Edward Pilling, who participated in the discussion. "You have to have one critical skill set that is in need."
    This is what I mean. Learn the new technology. Stay current and informed. Read Slashdot (mod me up now). Take classes. But most of all, stick your nose into it, roll up your sleeves and get your hands dirty. If you are going to get up each day and drag your ass into work, you might as well enjoy your workload. Sure, most IT jobs pay well, but if you hate computers it will show and you wont survive the influx of new grads and you will fall to the side of the road while the fast pace of technology marches on without you. If you love it, you wont be able to get enough of it, and you will succeed.
  • I will (Score:4, Insightful)

    by eclectric ( 528520 ) <bounce@junk.abels.us> on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:34PM (#5177899)
    I work at a university, which means I have a couple of things going for me.

    1. Longevity. Not many universities go out of business.

    2. Job security. You may be reassigned to departments you don't like, but it's pretty damned hard to get fired.

    3. Growth. Constant opportunity to do different things. I can get tired of IT completely, and switch to another field entirely, without losing any time on retirement.
  • by Tackhead ( 54550 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:45PM (#5177971)
    > Because at the rate IT firms close and layoff, we will have to keep working! Not all companies offer any retirement benefits at all. We will just have to keep on working, and do some smart investing if possible!

    "Pension"? What's that? "Benefits"? What are those? Oh, right, those things that some floozy from Human Resources at FooCorp says FooCorp will provide for me 40 years from now. As if anyone thinks FooCorp will still exist in 10 years, let alone 40.

    I expect and intend to live on my savings and investments, because those are the only assets I can trust. When it's a dollar figure in your account - whether it be a tax-deferred vehicle like an IRA, Roth, or 401(k), or whether it be your taxable savings or brokerage account, it's your property, and only your government can take it away. (And if we get to the point of a wealth tax gets put in place, the economy'll be so fucked by capital flight that it won't matter.)

    Now, do I expect to retire with a "pension and benefits"? Hell, no. But I don't want a pension or benefits - because I don't trust the companies (...or governments! At least you can choose to work for employers that do 401(k)s instead of pensions, but try opting out of your government's pyramid scheme!) to make good on the implied promises. And why should they make good on such promises - it's not like there's any way to hold them accountable when they renege.

    But that said, do I expect to retire with a high standard of living after a long and successful career in IT? Absolutely.

    And I'm not convinced my career will have to be that long, either. In fact, if I'm still working at 65, it'll be because I fucked up bigtime somewhere along the line.

    Anyone can cut down on unnecessary expenses, eliminate debt, and maintain positive cash flow over most of their working lives. Do that, and your career doesn't have to be "long" to afford you a decent standard of living.

  • by YrWrstNtmr ( 564987 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:48PM (#5177991)
    Do NOT denigrate that mil retirement. After 20 yrs, I got out in 97. That monthly check starting at age 39 or 40, AND the Tricare is invaluable.

    Yearly family Tricare payment is about the same as my current coworkers monthly payment.

    And I have had very, very few complaints about Tricare, either claims or service.
  • Probably not. (Score:5, Insightful)

    by satch89450 ( 186046 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:52PM (#5178017) Homepage

    I'm one of those people who have had several "careers" during his career, and until the current economic downturn I was able to slide where the work was. I started in embedded programming, moved to technical writing, managed a QA group, built and ran a couple of testing labs, got into the software publishing business, and right now I'm a product maintenance and tech support specialist and part-time security guard (two jobs).

    My choice? Not really. Companies kept dying on me, and I would have to move on. [This is nothing unusual when you are at the "bleeding edge" of a field -- I've heard the refrain time and time again as friends/colleagues tell about their experiences, "...and then IT died!"] In most cases, I was able to recognize the leading indicators of impending job expiration and "jump ship" before the blow landed. (In one case, Black Friday happened three weeks after I left a company; management there got sticky about recognizing my contributions...and the reason was that the parent company was dropping the axe on the subsidiary and didn't want to bother.)

    In spite of all this, I have received exactly one unemployment check, and that because I didn't act quickly enough before being pink-slipped by a company positioning itself to be purchased -- and the company suffered a near-death experience only to rise Phoenix-like in the UK a few years later -- but not with me anywhere near it.

    Unlike a number of my colleagues, I didn't job-hop per se; I tended to stay as long as the company, or project, stayed alive.

    One bad effect: the deaths of so many of the companies I worked for left me with no pension, none at all. This was before the days of IRAs and other instruments of retirement benefits that follow the employee even with the demise of the company that offered them. Because I followed the call of the job and not of money, the coffers are not exactly bulging at the moment. Indeed, when you strike the side of the money tank, the ring lasts for a long, long time...

    Today, I'm told I'm too old. Oh, no one wants an age discrimination suit, so they don't say it right out loud, but I get the message anyway. So I continue to chase the crumbs and send in resumes, waiting for the day that I have to auction everything off and try a nomadic lifestyle.

    Retirement? I don't think so.

    Can one find a lifetime career in IT? Don't bet on it.

  • by Pontiac ( 135778 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:52PM (#5178019) Homepage
    It's possible to make a lifetime carrier in the IT world. The trick is to keep on top of your game and don't let the world pass you by.

    My father started his IT carrier in 1968 and he's still at it today as a Senior Unix Administrator.
    He'll be retiring here in a few years. I fully intend to do the same.. only 40 more years to go.

    The Computers may get better and more reliable but end users will always need our help to run them.
  • by rufusdufus ( 450462 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:57PM (#5178046)
    After a short and successful career in computer programming I retired.

    To me it is humorous, but also sad, seeing the folks on this forum worry and bemone their futures. While at the same time railing against the Evil Corporation and spouting from the hill tops about the glory of freeware.
  • by nikko ( 158280 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:59PM (#5178058)
    Corporations are working hard to lower their operating costs. And it's a safe bet that the corporate executives will exempt their own over-the-top salaries, which seem to be completely immune to performance considerations, from the chopping block.

    IT is an easy costs target for two reasons:

    1) corporations can't measure IT quality, so might as well get the lowest cost

    2) the lawyer types who run government-industrial complex never liked geeks in the first place. They're the guys they made fun of in high school.

    So corporate chieftans love sending IT work to the lowest cost corners of the planet. To rub some salt in the wound, they even import cheap pieces of the planet to take jobs in America (H1-B).

    So as geeks, we have to lower what we charge corporations in order to stay competitive. But that's awfully hard to do when our input costs (like healthcare and housing) are growing at double digit rates.

    So the only logical thing for us to do is export ourselves to the 3rd world in order to lower our costs and stay competitive.

    Does anyone know if India or Australia will grant work Visas to Americans?
  • Re:Why not? (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Deskpoet ( 215561 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @07:59PM (#5178061) Homepage Journal
    In Europe, a lot of societies which have historically cherished the idea of retirement at age 65 with a generous pension are starting to re-think this concept, primarily because the pension funds simply won't be able to keep up with the glut of baby boomers retiring soon, but also because peoples' attitude towards work is changing.

    Says who? My wife's parents live there, I go there at least every couple of years, and I've seen NONE of that.

    People's attitude towards work remains the same: it sucks. And IT work sucks just as much as any other job--that's why all these grey cubes around me are festooned with Dilbert cartoons.

    You may want to work all your life, but there's far more to existance than digging ditches, whether they're literal or metaphorical Slammer troughs. Have some vision.....

  • Re:Sure (Score:3, Insightful)

    by vsprintf ( 579676 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @08:03PM (#5178086)

    if you're willing to move to India and take 1/10 of your current pay, you can have a lifetime job.

    Nope. Not unless you're young and Indian. The Indian "consulting" companies (body shops) here have made it clear they don't hire Americans. The comment was funny, though.

  • by anubi ( 640541 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @08:10PM (#5178128) Journal
    Except we do NOT get royalties from the work we have done, nor do we get any consideration from those who come later and build on our work.

  • Re:not likely (Score:3, Insightful)

    by rblancarte ( 213492 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @08:12PM (#5178137) Homepage
    But is that by your choice? I mean, two of my old bosses I can tell are in places that they are very happy in and will not be leaving anytime soon.

    If you find your nitch, then it is very possible. Remember, what might not be a match for you is perfect for someone somewhere.

    RonB
  • by DaveAtFraud ( 460127 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @08:20PM (#5178175) Homepage Journal
    Maybe I'm just a young looking 46 but I'm still at it in a technical role in a software company. And before you say, "Doing what? Writing Cobol?" we make a Linux based network monitoring appliance. Just to remind everyone of the depth of experience I bring to my job, I've got a punch card hanging on the wall at the back of my cubicle and an IBM System 370 reference summary beside it!

    People like to blame <your-personal-subpopulation-here> discrimination for there own short-comings and lack of willingness to keep current. The way not to be a victim of age discrimination is to embrace change and stay current. Employers will pay for experience as long as you can apply it to current technology and the problems to be solved NOW.

  • Re:I'll bite... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by naarok ( 102579 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @08:23PM (#5178198) Homepage
    "It's been well documented that the average career of a programmer is about 4 years".

    SAY WHAT? Where is this well documented? Other than people who have just started, I don't know many good code monkeys who gave up after four years. I and a number of friends have been going at it for 10. My brother (much older than I) has been going at it for more than 25 years.

    And I have to say I'm glad there aren't enough management positions for all of them. I've quit jobs because they wanted to push me into management.

    I LIKE coding, and I'm very good at it. I don't want to manage and get away from the tech. Although I have accepted architect roles as long as I could keep my hands dirty.

    I can see myself staying in IT for my entire career. I can also see myself going low tech and becoming a boat wright.

    I agree that there are places where programmers are disposable. This is probably where you get the 4 year people from. I was lucky enough to start in a place that wasn't like that. And now I'm lucky enough to have the insight to recognize a place like that and the skills to walk away to find a better place.
  • by lcsjk ( 143581 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @08:24PM (#5178207)
    Is the "average SlashDot reader" really in IT? Have you done a poll? I am a hardware Design Engineer (35 years of it and love it still). We hardware engineers went through the layoffs in the late '80s and saw the idea of pensions get supplanted by the 401k.
    With the average engineer position lasting 3.5 years, pensions don't exist and I do not think the IT career is any different.
    If you like what you do and make enough to eat and buy a few things as you do it, any career is successful.
    Retirement planning should be done by everyone as soon as their career starts. I was unfortunate to get caught between the pensions that disappeared if you did not stay 5 years, and the 401k/IRAs that you were not allowed to have if you were on a pension plan.
    If you can't do a 401K, do the IRA's and do it young! Then you will be able to retire if you want to stop working.

  • by vsprintf ( 579676 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @08:27PM (#5178226)

    I almost feel sorry for the people who I will be replacing in a few years, when they take a permanent vacation from contributing to society.

    Thanks for the laugh. I don't have to worry about being replaced by you. Do you really believe most companies are concerned about social contributions or individual abilities? You have a rude awakening awaiting when you find out it's all about the bottom line and the CEOs stock options.

    Idealism is something most young people suffer from, but when coupled with arrogance, it's very annoying.

  • by thac0 ( 644918 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @08:29PM (#5178235)
    Let's say you are a construction engineer and designing a building.

    Yes. Indeed, let's say that.

    * A building lasts for 30-50 years easily. Software lasts, what, 3 or 4 years before there is a new release significantly improved to justify a new expenditure?

    * Buildings require little to no engineering intervention in the intervening period. A typical software project is several orders of magnitude more complex than a typical building. They require constant maintenance.

    * Buildings that need new features rarely depend on engineers. For the most part repartitioning of the cubes, or even moving a non-bearing wall, requires no engineering. Software gets new features regularly and requires engineers to get the job done.

    So, while I'm a consultant and love it. To say that everyone need be is speculation about what the state of things might be, based on a completely untenable position. Software and building engineers aren't the same and never will be.
  • Lifetime? Easy. (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Eric_Cartman_South_P ( 594330 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @08:31PM (#5178248)
    Incorperate. Get yourself an S Corp ($500 USD). Sell yourself as a consultant, and do whatever consulting you want. Enjoy tech? Consult on tech. Teach, help, code, whatever. You will need to learn how to sell, because selling yourself is what brings in the clients who want and need your service. It takes little capital, lots of balls and lots of long days and nights. But it's worth it. And as technology changes, your deliverable (products/services) can change with them.

    And the legal tax breaks will make you drooooool. :)

    Yeah, it *IS* that easy. I know. It's what I did after 4 years of Java programming for idiot managers on Wall St who didn't know Swing (the API) from Sting(the Singer). Trust me... with a Palm pilot, a cell phone, and a bit of SELLING, you can do ANYTHING. Lifetime career in IT? Easy, if you work for yourself.

    Good luck! :)

  • by letxa2000 ( 215841 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @08:33PM (#5178258)
    Actually, I'd say most successful consultants *DO* have regular customers. Once you've been in the market for awhile and done work for a series of companies you find that some of the people you've already worked for will call you up for their next project, assuming you did a good job the first time around.

    I've been a full-time consultant for about 4 years and I've observed that 50% of my work is from repeat customers. Hopefully the other 50% later *become* repeat customers. :)

    Whether you are a prostitute or not depends on the kind of work you do, not whether or not you move around. A prostitute takes any work that comes along. Unfortunately, in 2002 I became a "consulting prostitute," so to speak, as I've taken projects that didn't really interest me other than the money because things were tight last year. 2003 is looking up, though, so hopefully I can stop being a consulting prostitute this year.

  • by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @08:35PM (#5178266)
    And no, the "taxes" taken out of your salary are not the same as the taxes taken out of the productive worker's salary - your taxes are reducing cost, ours are creating income for the goverment. There is a difference.

    uhh, no there's not. You sir, are an imbecile.

  • Re:I'll bite... (Score:2, Insightful)

    by rsheridan6 ( 600425 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @08:40PM (#5178291)
    I don't know about that.. I'm going back to school soon, and computers are my hobby so I wanted to do a CS degree, but with all of the apocalyptic press you hear about the IT industry these days, I thought better of it (Pharmacy school for me, with it's roughly 100% job placement rate for graduates). 2 or 3 years ago I would have gone for the CS degree, and people who did so at the time are now pretty far along in their studies and probably reluctant to switch majors. But the people who are entering college now will probably avoid IT unless they looooove it and have a trust fund. Certainly it will not be perceived as a great career move. Expect the supply of new programmers to dry up in the future.
  • by Tackhead ( 54550 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @08:42PM (#5178301)
    > The notion that smarter software converts knowledge work into service work is the truly scary part of this trend. Software won't replace people, because software will never be perfect; but it will REDUCE dramatically the number of people needed in the original task, and relegate the others to cleanup (help desk) type positions at much lower pay. In another country.

    And until someone codes up the AI that creates the software, there will always be good work to be had in IT.

    If you're talking CASE tools - until they write the AI that tells the CASE tool what the business plan is, and how to turn that business plan into something the CASE tool understands - there will still always be good work to be had in IT.

    In its broadest sense, IT is about taking things that exist in human minds (ideas) and expressing them in a form that machines (bare silicon, compilers, or CASE tools) can turn into code.

    Because that process always starts with a human, until machines develop sentience, there'll always be a need for humans in IT.

    The level of abstraction rises - but that's a good thing. Would you want to design and code something like KDE using front panel switches? An assembler?

  • by gillrock ( 517577 ) <gillrock@yahoo.com> on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @08:48PM (#5178330)
    Those of us that enjoy what we do for a living can and WILL make a career out of IT.

    The people that won't be in this for the long haul are those that were told, "Hey, get into that IT thing. You can make a ton of cash and play games all day."

    Those that got into IT because it was the "place to be" will vaporize into whatever the next "place to be" is.

    To me, this means that I won't have to listen to people bitching about how they took a desktop job and don't get to work on any servers. I won't have to hear, "I worked on this, that, and the other thing" and the words 'but you don't know what cut and awk do' ring in my head.

    Sorry, I'm venting because these are the folks that are kicking and screaming to stay in IT, but they don't really belong in IT and the "next big thing" isn't here yet for them to hop to. There are many good IT folks out of work today, and these whining people need to make room.
  • There's a difference between "raising awareness" and telling people to run for the hills. A lot of the stuff I'm seeing on Slashdot has been of the "There is nothing left in IT that you can ever do, and IT is dying."

    There's a WORLD of difference between saying "Sure, the city's a little flooded right now, maybe you should spend a couple of nights in a hotel outside of the city for comfort", and "SHIT! THE CITY'S FLOODED! THERE WILL NEVER BE A CITY AGAIN! PANIC PANIC PANIC!!!"

    In case you haven't heard, most people are NOT making money now, no matter what profession they're in. My dad makes BOXES in a factory, and they're having paycuts. My mom takes care of the mentally ill, they're having paycuts. (the caretakers, not the mentally ill.)

    -Sara
  • Of course, it takes a few years of experience to make it to the 65K level. Until then you'll be making much less, and will need to tune your current lifestyle down a couple of notches.

    As a homeower with monthly mortgage payments, I'm not sure I could make that transition.

  • by hacksoncode ( 239847 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @09:12PM (#5178445)
    The reason it's impossible to have a career as a programmer is that programming is a dime-a-dozen job.

    If you want to have longevity in the IT field, learn how to solve problems first, then how to do it in software.

    I don't have any worries, myself, because there will always be a place for people who can cut to the core of a problem and have insights into the key issues, in a broad range of fields.

    Actually coding up the solution, though, is a S.M.O.P [reference.com].

  • Re:Retirement??? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Cheeze ( 12756 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @09:32PM (#5178570) Homepage
    The army, navy, air force, and marines are always hiring.
  • Re:Sure (Score:3, Insightful)

    by wideBlueSkies ( 618979 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @09:37PM (#5178610) Journal
    They won't hire Ameriacans. Yet we allow Guptas to come here on H1-B's and steal our jobs from us.

    Is it me, or is something wrong with this picture?

  • by alexhmit01 ( 104757 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @09:40PM (#5178629)
    Sorry buddy, that's not IT, that's the fast track. Making $50-$75k/year right out of school, you're on the fast track. Guess what, median income for a family of four is under $40k/year. Every fast track career is short (the pre-MBA consulting jobs, etc., are 2-3 year jobs, then you get an MBA and start track two, or you wash out). Traders have the same lifestyle.

    You get out of school, and run like hell. Most people fall off (not everyone can be a senior partner at a law firm or Big-5 company), that's how it works. With the IT path, you find something else, or you sit and rot. You can sit in a big company's IT staff for years, but the hot-shot jobs are all going to be churn and burn. You want the comparitively big bucks, get ready to run like hell.

    Ya know all those cushy management consulting jobs that your business major friends wanted? Talk to them after 6 months, 12 months, 24 months. Some make it and go to B-school, others wash out and go find something else to do. If they couldn't take 80 hours a week of crunching excel spreadsheets that get ignored, they wash out.

    Stock traders, they can't sit there staring at a screen forever. Same with brokers. The ones that sit in a phone room either make it or wash out.

    Lawyers can go and start a 1 person law firm, but the big firms will suck you dry. You can't bill 80 hours, you can't make the next rung. That's life. There is only room for one CEO, and he can only have 7-10 people reporting to him, and so on, and so on. That means that for every person that advances, 6-9 wash out.

    Such is life. You can find engineering jobs that last, but the hot-shot code wringing dot-com lifestyle? Yeah you only got 3-5 years of it, same for everyone else.

    Alex
  • by L0neW0lf ( 594121 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @09:44PM (#5178658)
    I work for a public school district as a systems administrator, and I find the thought of being there for good has become a pleasant thought. You don't get paid nearly what a corporate IT person does...But, there's job security if you're good at what you do and have people skills, I have access to training if something new comes up, and the benefits are impossible to beat. I probably have one of the last medical plans out there where there is no prescribed list of doctors or hospitals; I choose what I want. I'm appreciated and respected by the people around me, and I'm fortunate to also have a really good guy as a boss. Added up, I enjoy what I do, and have found there's things I value more than making big bucks.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @09:45PM (#5178660)
    I had a fun 15 year career in the music business and have since been happily working in IT for 18 (so far). It's not really that different. You are really working for yourself and you'd be better off if you thought of yourself as a free-lance contractor whether it's a one night gig in a bar or n years in a datacenter. Even XX years of good work in a big company is no insurance against the morning call to the HR office and the long frog-march out the door accompanied by the security folks, as many of my colleagues have recently learned. Whatever you owe your company and whatever your company owes you is all paid up with each paycheck, no more no less. Any greater commitment between employer and employee is disappearing with each new M&A. The days of companies that built model communities of and for their employees - nurturing a culture of shared loyalty and obligation - are over and done with. The idea that stability and growth of the individual contributors can somehow be identified with the stability and growth of the enterprise is toast. You, and only you, can own your success. Finally, it's not what you know, it's what you've done. And just like in the music business, your only as good as your last project. Do great work, make sure everybody knows it, be fun to be with, keep your hand on your wallet, and the eyes in the back of your head wide open - you'll have a great run as long as you want.
  • by swordboy ( 472941 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @09:55PM (#5178721) Journal
    Here's a good example of a life'er:

    A few years back, IBM was reevaluating the FAA systems for Y2K compliance [house.gov] and they came to a conclusion:

    There is nobody left who understands the system.

    Moral?

    Work hard and then fuck the documentation when nobody is looking.
  • by autopr0n ( 534291 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @10:25PM (#5178878) Homepage Journal
    A bunch of uppety IT people slacking off for hours while the mail server goes down, and not letting anyone else fix it. Can't be fired of course, no no no.

    Why don't you study something usefull instaid?
  • It is possible... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by TWX_the_Linux_Zealot ( 227666 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @10:26PM (#5178880) Journal
    I work for the government, in an IS department. We have people who have been working there for 20+ years. One of them still has the same office. The great thing about government is that since one gets raises based on time automatically, one does do better the longer one works somewhere. Granted the raises aren't as fast or as potentially rewarding as private sector, but one doesn't have to worry about one's employer going out of business either.
  • by senahj ( 461846 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @10:54PM (#5179008)
    I've been twenty-two years in Silicon Valley, and I'm _trying_ to keep
    going as a geek,but it gets tougher every year.

    Technology companies have this inherent need to plan projects for the
    earliest possible completion.
    It's _always_ a race to market.
    There's _always_ schedule pressure.

    When you're 22 or 25 and just out of school, single and with few
    responsibilities, "challenging" projects are fun, in that masochistic
    geek way that we'reall so familiar with. Possibilities are exciting;
    obstacles exist to be overcome. You're gaining mastery.
    You *know* that you can bring in on time if onlyyou work nights and weekends
    for nine months or so. Maybe a year ...

    So you work insanely hard for three years, maybe five, and the company "appreciates" it. And eventually that company goes under, or closes your
    division, or something, and you move on. (Those options? Never were worth
    very much, and you never sold any of them anyway.)

    Then you're 37 and have young kids and a spouse who works.
    Your manager comes to you with a right-to-left project plan that you _know_
    will require nights and weekends. Again. And you sigh, and sign up, and do
    the work -- it's familiar, you know the right way to do stuff, you know the
    problems and what the solutions cost, you know the tradeoffs.
    You do it, but it costs you -- you have to miss your kid's school talent show,
    you're not home nights, you have to work the week you had planned to take the
    family to the beach. Your spouse resents the hours, but they've promised you a
    sabbatical after only five years, and you've got lots of stock options.

    Somewhere along the line you try management, and parts of it are OK,
    and parts of it you're real good at, but it's tiresome to work at such a high
    level of abstraction, where there's no right answers, only "issues". And it's
    soul-killing to watch your boss, and his boss, try to avoid understanding
    inconvenient facts. At some point you know, you _insist_ that the plan under
    discussion is unrealistic, because it is. You're not a team player.
    Your review is painful, for the first time ever.
    Back to engineering.

    You work hard for a year, and they cancel the project.
    You work *really* hard on the next, critical, save-the-company project --
    and they cancel that one too. You go to meetings for three weeks trying to
    define another product, and then that company folds. Your options are again
    worthless. The company stock you bought through the ESPP is worthless.
    You're burnt out emotionally, and your health could be better -
    a dozen years of sitting in a cubicle typing under fluorescents
    has taken its toll.

    You resolve never again to sacrifice family life and emotional health in favor
    of working too hard. You limit your hours,never come in on weekends any more.
    You won't sign up for plans that demand sixty hour weeks -- but most of your
    co-workers are youngsters just out of school, and eat that stuff up. You look
    unmotivated and cynical by comparison -- in fact, you _are_ unmotivated and
    cynical. It's great doing stuff with your own kids for a couple years (but
    they're teenagers now, and don't have much time for you), but your reviews
    aren't much fun. They hand out options and you get damn few. You stop getting
    raises.

    Then that company folds, and you're forty-nine years old, looking for another gig
    in a downturn. The companies that need you are looking for someone to come in
    and work _really_ _hard_ to save a project that's fallen behind schedule

    but you could pull it off, with only
    nine months or so of working nights and weekends.
    Maybe a year ...

    ----

    All you young guys should read Tracy Kidder's excellent
    _The_Soul_Of_A_New_Machine_. Maybe read it twice.
  • by The_dev0 ( 520916 ) <[hookerbot5000] [at] [gmail.com]> on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @11:21PM (#5179160) Homepage Journal
    Good call, friend. I also work the government in Australia after coming to the same decision you did. After working contract IT for about 5 years it was time to make a decision. Do I want to keep working for higher pay but no promises for the future? What's more important to me, cash in my pocket or a permanent job? I could have kept shuffling from place to place with the work like some kind of techie fruitpicker, but instead I took the pay hit and moved into the public sector. Good super, paid sick/annual leave, and a hell of a lot more stability than I ever saw working as a contractor. The money isn't as good, but it's nice to know i'll be paid again next week same bat-time, same bat-channel.
  • by devleopard ( 317515 ) on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @11:22PM (#5179163) Homepage
    I'm only 25, but I've maintained employment in IT since October 1998. My pipeline is filled through the summer, and I have plenty of prospects. I haven't taken the typical jobs - none of the 60 hour a week crap. I haven't been salaried, ever. I only take contract work. The jobs I do have to work the extra hours for are my private clients - no manager to screw with. I keep my eyes and my mind open - I go where the money is.

    I'm primarily a programmer, and I have picked up a number of technologies, since no platform lasts forever, or always has work available. I don't play the "platform politics" game - currently I'm doing .NET development because that's where the work is. Next week it might be PHP, or Perl, or Java. I don't care, I'll do it, regardless of what my personal feelings are. Until ESR or Jobs or Cox or Gates start paying my rent and feeding my family, I show no "professional" allegiance to any one company or principle. I consider software and technology a tool; to me, Windows, Linux, .NET, and Java are just hammers, screwdrivers, and saws. You have your preferences, but you're willing to use any one of them if there's a paycheck on the other end.

    I focus on architecture. I focus on networking - I'm on the board of a local user group (DFW ColdFusion Users Group). This keeps my name in the community. I focus on business processes that drive the software I build - so far, I've picked up in-depth knowledge of the airline, health care, and financial markets, among others.

    The bottom line - don't sit around letting yourself be influenced by the market; create your own market. Always remember that no how good you can write stored procedures or killer C API's, your just another code monkey - find a way to make yourself more than a coder, and you become a solutions provider that customers keep coming back to.

  • by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 28, 2003 @11:46PM (#5179287)
    Engineers are destined to get fired.

    Ah yes, the voice of management's apologist. On behalf of my children's dinner table, I'm going to say this as nicely as I can:

    Fuck off.
  • by bushboy ( 112290 ) <lttc@lefthandedmonkeys.org> on Wednesday January 29, 2003 @01:38AM (#5179952) Homepage
    Seeing as IT stands for Information Technology, I would imagine that as long as humans desire Information, there will be Technology around to provide that Information.

    The problem with a long-term career in IT is that it favours youth, as 'burn out' is a big issue.

    The trick to a lifetime career in IT is to acknowledge that eventually youth will surpass you and to make plans to take a different route, such as starting a small company or move up the food-chain in a larger company :)
  • Re:Certainly (Score:1, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday January 29, 2003 @03:14AM (#5180234)
    That works fine up to the point that the company lays you off. Not even the most competent, skilled, well-connected, and senior peons are immune from it.
  • by weave ( 48069 ) on Wednesday January 29, 2003 @07:08AM (#5180603) Journal
    I've been at the same job for 21 years. It's a state job, which hasn't been the best paying, but I can retire in 4 years and pull a pension.

    What also helps is I haven't let myself get too set in my ways. We've been through a lot of changes where I work.

    First, it was Z80 assembler coding on Xerox 820 computers hooked to some ancient twisted-pair 307.2Kbps network. I wrote an OS for it. It ran until 1989.

    Then in 1988 we got a Prime minicomputer and 386-based AT&T Unix system. I had to learn configure that Unix box having never touched vi before, had to figure out Primos and their gawd-awful ed program, and then taught myself C. Made sure all above ran TCP/IP so we could one day connect to public Internet, even though everyone else wanted X.25. In 1992 we connected.

    In 1993 threw that all out and bought a Data General Aviion box running dg/ux and a nifty 20-slot RAID array system. Shortly after that I pushed a web server in my company and got them up with that. Chose to learn Perl, quickly preferred that over C.

    In 1999 threw it all out and got a new fangled Storage Area Network with a rack of cheap (relatively) servers. An entire new technology to learn.

    During above time I also became very proficient in Windows Systems administration, and currently manage a 50/50 mix of Windows under Active Directory for 13,000 user and Linux boxes.

    I'm 43, I'm going to retire in 4 years with a pension and health insurance for life. At that time, I'll do riskier self-employment scene since the pay is better (if you can get the work) but the pension check will pay the bills during dry times. I've already purchased a server at johncompanies.com and have two paying clients and am working on more with goal to build it up until I retire and move to that stuff full-time.

    Another opportunity is to teach. I taught part-time at a community college from 1984 to 1994 and enjoyed it. I also know, beings that I work for one in IT, that good teachers are hard for these places to find.

  • by weave ( 48069 ) on Wednesday January 29, 2003 @07:53AM (#5180696) Journal
    Those in IT can at least take comfort in the fact that all over the country, the number of students going into IT related fields in higher ed is dropping dramatically. People coming out of high schools look at this current-bad market and are choosing other career paths. Where I work, a community college, enrollments in the CIS program are down 50% from last year. That should help dry up the supply side.

    And come on, I'm sure we all have known a lot of wannabe coders who got jobs making insane bucks a few years ago and we couldn't figure out how they did it. Well, they are all dropping out of the field too. Companies hired a lot of people because they were desperate a few years ago, a lot of marginal or really suckass personnel. If Bush stops scaring the shit out of consumers and businesses and things settle down and this country gets back to business, they will start hiring again and people with true skills this time will succeed because there will be less of us. Only the real talented ones will be left.

    (At least this is what I keep telling myself so I feel better...)

  • Re:Hey! (Score:2, Insightful)

    by ratamacue ( 593855 ) on Wednesday January 29, 2003 @08:42AM (#5180786)
    when corporations are overthrown by the starving masses, declared illegal, and their suppressed documents are released, causing a second renaissance and pulling all the world out of the second dark ages

    Good luck on that. And don't worry about the little fact that by criminalizing free trade, your government will gain complete, unescapable control over your body, your mind, your behavior, and your entire life in general.

    Nope, let's just ignore the fact that government is every bit as self-serving as private business, only with the unique ability to invoke force as a business model.

    Yes, I know your comment was meant to be funny. People also laugh about the fact that 99.9% of the population cannot understand the tax code (or what those taxes will be used for), but they shrug their shoulders and pay anyway. Logically, if the vast majority of the people cannot (not "do not want to", but "cannot") understand why or how they're being taxed, we are looking at an accounting scandal that makes the Enron execs look like kids stealing candy from 7-11.

  • This is becoming borderline troll material. Why do I actively pass on the traditional route ? Well, it's constantly under assault. First from employers who want/need to keep labor/benefits costs down. They're trying to get the best bang from thier buck. Whats funny is I've met so very few people who turn this back around on the firm. Second from global competition (rightfully, IMHO) that are looking to win business and a better standard of living for themselves, putting downward pressure on wages. As other countries gain IT or some other hot commodity, they will put pressure on firms that have been mainstays. This means keep an eye on China & India. It also means firms like HP, IBM, etc are doomed to marginalization in so many ways. Third, the churn of technology doesn't really leave much room for "lifers". Put another way, certain skillsets that command above average wages tend downward over time due to new entrants, obsolesence etc (example: vendor specific certifications become worthless quickly without increasing relevant experience too, think Novell, OS/2, DECNET) Finally, and more importantly to me, independence from someone else's teat (be that government, corporations, or unions). Forget blatant examples like Enron. Think more frequent examples like IBM, the US Army, the Postal Service, or {name your favorite entity that has cut back on retiree benefits in some way over time, see google}. Anybody, currently under 40 who thinks they will retire the old fashioned way is following a dangerous fairy tale. I think a lifelong career is possible. However, trusting that {your favorite entity} will take care of you in the golden years is a sure path to failure. Multiple jobs, both independent, and as staff will happen. Everytime I will actively manage, and manipulate the situation to maximize my benefit according to my plan.

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