The IT Market: Cyclical Downturn or New World Order?

An anonymous reader wrote: "CNN.com is running an interesting story on the heels of a Forrester Research report concerning the shift of high tech jobs from the U.S. to places like China, India, and Russia for cheaper labor and got me thinking about the nature of the current downtrend in programmer demand in the U.S (as opposed to the "morality" of such a shift). While I'm sure the causes for this downtrend are variable, the more important question in my mind is this -- Is software guru Bruce Eckel correct in saying that the current downturn represents a temporary blip in the business cycle as jobs are shifted from large and medium companies to smaller companies, or are Andy Hunt and Dave Thomas correct in recognizing this as a new reality. Personally I tend to agree with Hunt and Thomas's view (which is not completely opposed to Bruce's opinion, btw) and I also agree with their viewpoint that protectionist policies like H1B quotas and tariffs won't work to change anything for the better. So what do you think? Is this just another business cycle or is this a New World Order in IT?"

fire up the plant....

[pauly_thumbs]

.. we'll start making widgets again!

Something is cyclical...

[dcypher_67]

but I believe that cycle has to do with posting stories over and over.

I'm going to say Dave Thomas is right

[Anonymous Coward]

You have to say this: the man certainly knew how to run a quality burger restaurant. And I can't imagine those skills aren't transferrable to IT.

"That's Dave's Way.."

No Tip.

[Anonymous Coward]

You know, I've been sitting at this table for over 30 minutes, waiting for my New World Order... I mean, I know its lunch hour and everything, and the chef can get busy, but c'mon? How long is this thing gonna take?

No tip, thats all I can say. I should complain to the manager!

Re:The Economics of Empire

[fobbman]

"But the race to the bottom can happen at all levels of employment..."

Oh really? So when did corporations start outsourcing their outrageously-paid executives to India?

Re:Watch out for phonies

[TrollBridge]

"The dot-com boom created a lot of "programmers" who weren't."

You must be referring to my MCSE...

That depends...

[j_kenpo]

Once again this topic comes up on Slashdot. I remember a quote one time (cant remember where to link) but the jist of it was that while cheaper labor, they provide a different mind set to projects. The poster mentioned that American programmers have a better problem solving mindset, while Indian programmers could spit out more generalized code much much faster and could do math based programming better. While I don't necessarily agree with this, it did bring up a good point in my mind, and that's the old "right tool (or programmer) for the right job". It's too bad that businesses see it in dollars, not sense and leave a lot of good American programmers without work, and put Indian programmers on programming tasks they would better suited for.

But back to this threads topic, I do think that it is a trend that will be difficult to break. The reason is saturation of programmers in America. Partially because during the IT boom, everyone and their mother went to get a programming degree, which left the US market saturated with programmers that were in it for the money, not because they loved it. I think that's the root cause of the US IT employment woes, just like in the early to mid 80's when everyone went the MBA's. And in about 10 years the same thing will happen, a new fad market will arise (legalized marijuana growth is my hope...) and the saturated market will subside. That's just my opinion...

Re:The Economics of Empire

[Wireless Joe]

David Horsey, the Pulitzer-winning editorial cartoonist for the Seattle PI, had a similar view [nwsource.com].

Re:The Economics of Empire

[Lumpy]

The biggest part of the problem is that we should have never been "white collar" and getting insane salaries. The past 5 years only made people think that it's the easy road, and you get rich doing it. No. it's not.

$35,000.00 to $60,000.00 is the realistic range of salary for the It field. managers who understnad and manage large groups get more because they are management, etc...

It's our own fault that it is this way. The market is flooded with crap-abilities with paper certs wanting high 5 figures or low 6's and HR departments are tired of filtering through the idiots who think they know, the wannabe's who were suckered by the last round of MCSE infomercials promising better wages and a great career. Those of us who have been here before, sat at their job making the supposed paltry $45,000.00 a year are STILL sitting here at our jobs listening to the out of work whine because they can't afford their BMW payment and might have to sell their Porche or sell the 4000 sq foot house with a pool in the valley.

Boo Fricking Hoo. Until IT people get realistic, figure out a way to get rid of the worthless that are masquerading as skilled behind pieces of meaningless paper and prove to the employers that we are actually not just money whores who will chase after whoever has the biggest pile of money... it wont get any better for you. you will never get that 6 figure programming job ever again, because you are not worth it.. You think you are?? then start your own damn company.

The reality is that companies are afraid of IT because of the crap we pulled in 1996-2000.

Re:The Economics of Empire

[scalis]

True enough, the people of china for instance might be better off today than they were some 20 years ago because of production being moved there from foreign companies.
Who knows, when they think keeping production there isnt generating enough profit, they might even outsorce it to some african country...
But just because there are upsides does not mean that there are no downsides!
Cheaply produced chicken for instance, pumped with water to increase weight, moved half way across the globe packed with conservatives is one downside for instance. Just because it is cheaper does not always mean that it is better. Competing in screwing each other over is one competition id rather pass.

Awww, somebody's player-hating again...

[MohammedNiyalSayeed]

Yes, all of us Americans are incapable of properly pronouncing words. Yes, we're all evil. Now bring your throat a little closer, so I can cut it, bitch.

Fact: we're a huge economic juggernaut, and you can't topple us. Sure, it may make you cry like the little baby you are, but you can't do a goddamned thing about it.

Sucks to be you, eh?

Re:The Economics of Empire

[randyest]

Cheaply produced chicken for instance, pumped with water to increase weight, moved half way across the globe packed with conservatives is one downside for instance.

Wow, as a conservative myself (economically speaking), I have to agree that being packed into a chicken would definitely be a downside to anything. Although having water pumped in would be nice, I mean, if I have to be packed into a chicken, at least it should have running water available, right? :)

Best laugh all day

[autechre]

> Cheaply produced chicken for instance, pumped
> with water to increase weight, moved half way
> across the globe packed *with conservatives* is
> one downside for instance.

(emphasis added)

You know, I'd really have to weigh the benefits of that one. I'm opposed to commercial mass-farming of animals, but if they were stuffed with the likes of Bill O'Reilly and Michael Savage...mmm...

(I think you meant preservatives, but I can dream)

Just something you're going to have to get used to

[CashCarSTAR]

20-25% unemployment
Massive social uphevel
No job security

There is no solution.

We played the game as a society, and we lost.

Such is life.

Re:The Economics of Empire

[ameoba]

Makes sense to me; ship hundreds (if not thousands) of manufacturing and design jobs overseas and then get excited about a handful of analyst jobs getting created.

In the New World Order, the only jobs left will be retail clerks, politicians and plumbers; systems analysts are plumbers.

Elbonians

[BillFarber]

The Elbonians are simply too cheap to compete with and will eventually perform all IT work.

Re:In other words

[Marc2k]

(fucking candians, taking all of our jobs)

Candians? Are those natives of Candyland©?

Re:Time to start learning Hindi

[Zoop]

Highly skilled folks in the rest of the world have been dealing with this for years -- they all learned English to compete. Now it's our turn.

You mean, we have to learn English?

But...but...that means spell-checking our posts...and using punctuation correctly...and, my God, grammar?!?

The horror, the horror.

Re:The Economics of Empire

[watzinaneihm]

Amazing!! Most of the posts on Slashdot today (atleast all the 4+ modded posts ) seem to be saying "Free market wins" or "information wants to be free". It just proves that geeks are really a more liberal crowd than the average populace.
Rarely have I seen somebody stick to their beleifs of freedom and Justice when they were directly under threat.This has been a marked change from all the previous discussions on Slashdot usually based on feelings and emotions, maybe the "cycle" in the title made people think about the issues before posting? I don't know what more to say. This discussion almost sounds like a great swansong
That or the Indians have got all the mod points today.

Re:The Economics of Empire

[Tablizer]

World peace will come when men of every nation have the opportunity to better themselves through commerce, rather than violence.

Bill Gates, the New Ghandi?.....(choke, gasp, cough)