Believe the Occupational Outlook Handbook? 518
concerned00 writes "In their latest Occupational Outlook Handbook, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics says that employment of software engineers and system analysts is expected to increase 'much faster than the average' through 2014 (here, and here). In contrast, employment of programmers is expected to increase 'more slowly than the average,' with outsourcing given as one of the major reasons why (here). However, from the stories I read from American programmers on the Net, the profession is lost. Is the government wrong, or lying, then, when it implies that software engineers and system analysts can expect to have a good future? As an American, am I a fool if I decide to undertake this for a living?" Read more for details of concerned00's analysis.
The difference between a "software engineer" and a "programmer" seems somewhat dubious to me, although from the Web pages in question apparently the software engineer is involved in requirements gathering, analysis, and design, whereas the programmer usually is not. According to the Web page for programmers, "[t]he consolidation and centralization of systems and applications, developments in packaged software, advances in programming languages and tools, and the growing ability of users to design, write, and implement more of their own programs mean that more of the programming functions can be transferred from programmers to other types of information workers, such as computer software engineers." (?)
The page for software engineers says: "Computer software engineers are projected to be one of the fastest-growing occupations from 2004 to 2014." Reasons given: the increasing complexity of computer systems, the need to "adopt and integrate new technologies," "the expanding integration of Internet technologies and the explosive growth in electronic commerce," the increasing reliance on "hand-held computers and wireless networks," and concerns about security. Yet: "As with other information technology jobs, employment growth of computer software engineers may be tempered somewhat as more software development is contracted out abroad. Firms may look to cut costs by shifting operations to lower wage foreign countries with highly educated workers who have strong technical skills. At the same time, jobs in software engineering are less prone to being sent abroad compared with jobs in other computer specialties, because the occupation requires innovation and intense research and development." (?)
On the other hand, to hear the personal anecdotes of many (American) programmers on the Internet, the profession is lost and anyone in college majoring in computer science or software engineering must be either naive or insane. According to them, you have to be a genius programmer if you expect to compete successfully for the slim pickings that are left, there is no job security at all, and the best most can realistically hope for these days is a job at Home Depot. Furthermore, even if you could get work, you wouldn't want it: the deadlines are impossible, the bosses are naive, petty-minded, and perversely self-serving, and the technology changes so fast that if you allow yourself to slip behind you might as well kiss your career good-bye.
tea leaves and biz speak (Score:3, Interesting)
I was interviewed today for a short contract position requiring some Java skills. In the space of 3 business days, the employer was able to interview and decide between 3 different people. An hour later, I got the news. I was not picked. I asked the recruiter whether there really was a shortage of people and he gave an emphatic yes. So I asked, why then was this employer able to get a choice of people in such a short time? If there really was a shortage of people, shouldn't positions stay unfilled for weeks because they can't find anyone? Shouldn't there have been no competition? He didn't have a direct answer for that, but mentioned he's been trying to fill all kinds of open positions at several companies.
Maybe it's "biz speak". To employers, "shortage" really means "we weren't inundated with hundreds of resumes for 1 position".
My anecdotal (Score:2, Interesting)
OK, I am one of those boomers mentioned, how many more times am I supposed to learn a completely new trade and try to have a "career"? I'm looking at now never getting to retire, just work until I drop, literally. Should I get into computers? Everything I see is they are being made overseas and the software programming is going over there as well. Doesn't look real smart to me. What is left, medical profession? Do they even take old farts into medical school? Would there be schooling assistance? Would they even consider my grades from decades ago? My guess is this would be a waste of time as well.
I've liked every job I have had so far. Sure, some parts were sucky, but all jobs have sucky parts to them. It isn't enough to just love your work, the powers that be/ wall street assholes have got to STOP shipping out still useful jobs and stop shipping in illegal blue collar workers who will work under the table for peanuts.
Yes, I am employed now but at a pretty small salary for a lot of work, seven days a week in fact to barely get by. Pretty bitter about things, it doesn't matter sometimes how loyal you are, how hard working, how much you put into learning a skill when the rich guys can just dump you like used tissue paper so they can squeeze another few dollars out for their already over stuffed wallets.
My Experiences (Score:4, Interesting)
I became interested in computers at that time, since I actually had money to buy one. So when my department was eliminated during the industrial downsizing that was so popular during Bush I, I looked at it as an opportunity. I ended up going back to school for Computer Science and taking a job delivering food at night. I really came to enjoy programming, I liked the feeling I got when the program worked correctly. I graduated with a degree in Computer Science in 2002. At that time, I couldn't buy a job so I ended up working at Wal-Mart while looking for programming work. I spent a year doing this before I decided that if I wanted to ever make more than $7.00 an hour, I would need to find a career that could not be sent overseas. To me it came down to either teaching or medical.
I decided on teaching, went back to school, yet again, and got a Masters in Education. I took a job teaching computers to middle school kids at a low-income school. So now (3 years later) I'm making $38,000 a year with a debt of $60,000 from my student loans. I enjoy the work, but I have never stopped programming and still send my resume out every now and again. I even had an interview for an entry level programming position recently. The interview did not go well. They asked a lot of questions about SQL, which I never really enjoyed so I haven't kept up with it.
A System Analyst at the school's district office is telling me to get certified in Java because he's convinced that is the way to get noticed. I'm almost to the point where I just don't care anymore and will teach until I retire. So, no enjoying a job and being good at it (I'm a very good programmer) are not enough to get you a job in this country any more.
Re:True, but is it the right question? (Score:5, Interesting)
I want to expand on this point. A lot of programmers I know seem to be missing something fundamental here, for reasons that I don't get.
Look, there are two core facts about programming as a career that trump everything else. The first is that not everybody can do it. I'd guess that only 25% of the population (tops) even has the potential to become a useful programmer. There is something about being able to decompose a technical problem into its constituent parts and then generating solutions for each of those parts that is simply beyond the capacity of the vast majority of people. I'm not saying they're stupid--brilliant poets are brilliant regardless of whether they have the capacity to learn C in any meaningful way. I am saying that there is some mental capacity that is not universal, and that people without that capacity are literally untrainable in the craft of creating software.
The second core fact about programming as a career is that software creates its own demand. If you have one system and you write a second system, then in addition to all of the from-scratch systems that you could write, you also have the option of writing a system that integrates the first two. The mere existence of software increases the number of potential projects that exist, and it does so on a super-exponential curve. Most of those possible systems aren't actually useful, so they're never developed, but the number of useful possible systems also is increasing at an accelerating rate.
Now apply these two core facts to the current labor situation. We've created so much demand for software in the Western world through our ever-increasing automation of an ever-increasing number of our activities that we can no longer satisfy the internal demand of our economy for persons able and willing to create software. We've already hired everybody who wants to be a coder and is able to produce usable code, but we still are demanding more and more software from them. In addition to bidding up prices for Western talent (take a look at where 'Software Engineer' falls on the annual salary charts and then cry me a river $100k/year wide) our society is also now hiring up everybody able and willing to write code in other parts of the world (and bidding up their prices, as well). Our own population is insufficient to meet our needs, so now we're skimming the cream of everybody else's crop.
Unfortunately, even India and China don't have an infinite number of citizens who can actually create useful systems. As we send more and more work their way we're pumping the oil field of software talent dry. Not only that, but the better jobs and higher wages relative to their home economies that third-world programmers enjoy reinforce most of these trends. By making more they consume and invest more. This steadily pushes up the demand for middle-class and luxury goods in their home societies. But what does that really mean? That means that they're pushing up the overall demand for software in their home economies (virtuous circle == (more money == more businesses == more technology investment)), which brings us back to where we started. Software creates its own demand, and not everybody can create software.
What happens when the Indians and Chinese are using all of their programmers for their own economies is anybody's guess. The fact that someday they will be seems pretty solid.
Re:Yes, you would be a fool (Score:3, Interesting)
In theory this is true; in practice it is not. Software produced in any country different from the ones where the customers are suffers from substantial communications breakdowns, which leads to all sorts or problems. Language barriers are also a major issue.
India and China produce more software developers in total, and proportionally more *excellent* developers.
How sure of this are you, really? Do you think that the educational systems in those countries are up to snuff? I'm not saying that they won't be someday, but based on my own experiences I'd say there's still quite a gap there. Those countries, for example, seem to be woefully underrepresented at the top international research conferences in Software Engineering given their relative populations. Researchers from those countries that I see at those conferences are working or studying at American and European universities, largely.
That's why they are becoming competitive - their PhDs are just as smart now as any european or american PhD, and there are far more of them, and they charge far less, and the process is only unwinding out of control.
Let's assume that smart people come in similar proportions regardless of national origins (which is probably true). This still doesn't explain the dearth of top research in software engineering from India and China, and why the top individuals from these countries are still going to America and Europe to get their PhDs and teach once they have them. There's something else going on here.
Re:You can't get there from here. (Score:4, Interesting)
Seriously... the other 29 canidates that I brought in couldn't write a 3 case "if" statement in the right order.
I made up a test (Well copied it actually: http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/archives/000781.html/ [codinghorror.com]) and I thought to myself, "There is no way this will help me filter people out, this is WAY too easy." But I decided to go ahead and try the simple test just to see how people would approach it. To my shock.. every single person failed it except for the guy I hired.
I suddenly realized my own place in this job market was MUCH better then I had thought before. (Being totally self taught and working by myself or with small teams, I used to wonder how well I stacked up to what was out there) If you are GOOD at programming there is PLENTY of oppertunity in the US for programmers. You hear me smart kids? We can certainly use many many more good programmers.
Re:You can't get there from here. (Score:1, Interesting)
Barely make it through DeVry and a company's going to get past the language barrier and find someone more skilled in India who's will to pay less.
I'm not knocking DeVry, I'm knocking bad programmers. Maybe I am knocking DeVry...they'll let you pay for a degree in computer programming even if you're not good at it.
Re:Yes, you would be a fool (Score:3, Interesting)
The basic code monkey, IS much less expensive. However with the regions I work with in China and India there is a 20 - 40% annual turnover rate at that level. Which make high level, sustained efforts challenging.
My business has had to learn the hard way, that at the top 10% skill level, there is NO cost savings for using offshore talent and quite a bit of extra work, unless our projects are managed at the regional level. Even then, the quality of the product is not comparable to equivalent, domestically run efforts.
A key thing to remember is that in India and China, labor necessarily the only factor to consider. The cost per square foot for Powered, lighted and climate controlled is a component our migration planners failed to take into account. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-04/05/content_320651.htm
In our initial assessments of the potential cost savings, it was proposed that there was a 10 to 1 ratio for the work produced when using regional talent per dollar. However, in reality it is more like 1.2 to 1 for equivalent projects and the falling Dollar on track to wipe that out before we recoup our start up costs.
"engineering" is a little too grand (Score:2, Interesting)
I think the title "engineering" is much too grandiose for what most people who build software ever do, and for that matter I don't think most software projects are really "engineered" at all. This isn't a bad thing, really. For there to be a meaningful engineering process involved in building something, it implies a large accumulated body of best practices accepted by people learned in the art. That is true for some software, most notably programming languages, databases, and operating systems. But I don't really think it is yet true for desktop applications, games, or web sites. Only a tiny minority of us involved in the trade are actually doing engineering.
We might write better code if it was more like a real engineering discipline. I somehow doubt it, though. Software is a little too fluid. Over and over again I've written software to solve a problem that inadvertently changed the problem definition. As soon as users get hold of a new software tool, they often discover things about their own data for the very first time -- some good, some bad. That generates feature requests and more billable hours. The equivalent rarely happens when you build dams or bridges.
Building software, I think, is much more of a creative trade with more in common with composing music or performing in a theater than with designing headlight bezels for panel trucks. At times, I suspect one reason that there is such resistance to this point of view is that we perceive our field as a "hard" technical field, not an artistic one. It is certainly true that any design process, from composing a sonnet, taking a great photograph, or making a SSTO rocket engine involves a fair amount of both technical knowledge and creativity. The artificial division between those endeavors is pretty awkward for those of us who like to write code, though. I also suspect that one reason that job dissatisfaction, burnout, and just out-and-out cynicism is so high in our chosen field is that most people creating software are managed not as artists, not as highly skilled experts like a team of surgeons performing a risky procedure, but as an army of mechanics.
There are orders-of-magnitude differences between individual code productivity (I think factors of a thousand or even ten thousand are plausible). That means that one hypothetical American superprogrammer paid millions of dollars per year is likely still much less expensive than an army of average code grunts from India -- even before you layer in the communications costs of managing a larger team, travel costs, and the difficulty of communicating requirements and changes to requirements to a development team literally on the other side of the planet. A lot of that productivity advanage, I suspect, comes from understanding requirements well. You are less likely to get the ten-thousand to one productivity advantage if your requirements are communicated to you indirectly (like through a bunch of jet-lagged product managers who you meet physically once a month and teleconference with a few times a week).
To go back to the media analogy, we all know that getting into acting, music, or television news requires overcoming almost overwhelming odds. There is no shortage, ever, of starving artists. Yet people expend enormous amounts of energy trying to break into these fields. For average compensations that make churning out MS Access applications look like a great job. I think that's where software is going. There seems to be no shortage of talented people in the media fields (and no shortage of untalented either), yet there really isn't any equivalent to an entry level job.
Re:You can't get there from here. (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:You can't get there from here. (Score:2, Interesting)
Your point is that the simple software tasks can be performed cheaply in developing countries. The more difficult tasks cannot.
This is true now, for some reasonable value of "true." However, my young colleagues in Bangalore and Beijing are not standing still in this race. They are working hard, picking up skills as fast as they can. Exactly as I did, when I was their age.
In a few years, these Asian new college grads will no longer be entry level engineers. They will be the senior developers of their time. And where will the American senior developers be? Retired, that's where. If we lose a generation of American entry level engineers, where will the next generation of senior developers come from?
Re:You can't get there from here. (Score:5, Interesting)
I've worked just about every IT job there is since 1997 - starting as a programmer analyst. If I tried to go over the laundry list of languages, OS environments, and software I'm either very familiar with or sometimes even had a hand in developing -- I'd probably forget a dozen or more between them - maybe more. A couple of years ago I gave up on finding stable work - and took up private consulting. Being something of a jack-of-all-trades, I didn't have any problems finding work.
It was not until then that I fully realized what was happening with IT. To me, I had just seen jobs going overseas without realizing the full scope of how it effected IT as an industry.
Being a consultant, you're something of a throw-away employee. No major overhead, no accounting headaches, no benefits to deal with, just cuts it plain and simple - not to mention the best part - they can fire you just because, with no consequences. In reality, that is what the general IT industry has become as a whole. An industry of throw-away employees. One where most employers expect you to know exactly what they need. Specific OS, language, and development environments.
If a company is looking to downsize, IT is almost always the first place they look, and the department hit the hardest.
I made the decision about 5 months ago that I was going back to school, I was going to finish a degree - but it was not going to be a CS degree. The industry, in my opinion, is completely lost. Even on the administration side. Don't get me wrong, there are jobs to be had - but the pay very rarely fits the level of responsibility and knowledge required.
Just weeks before classes started I got a call from a friend who thought he had *the* job lined up for me - as an engineer. Transportation Logistics Engineer, to be more specific. How I manage to always get jobs I have no specific education in is beyond me, but I considered myself saved and I really don't care why. Most of the people at the company stay there for their entire working careers - getting a position there with no degree in the specific field they were seeking had never even crossed my mind.
But, I digress...
I've worked in IT for 10 years. I've seen it all, from being the solo network admin at a small company to being lead developer on projects for some of the largest corporations in the world. I turned away from the industry and I will never look back for anything more than a hobby. Even today, I am still getting calls from people I had consulted with desperate for me to schedule in some time for them - offering weekend and evening work if I would come fix or support key systems they don't want to pay an employee to maintain.
If a friend asked me if they should consider a degree or career in IT, I would not hesitate to warn them of the instability, irregular hours, low pay for skill and responsibility, lack of a future, and in general the bad past experiences I have had. Things like not seeing my son for more than a couple hours a month for the first three years of his life, due to work. Or the many times I found myself not going home or sleeping for days on end. It sounds like a nightmare and people wonder how such things could honestly happen, but there is an entire industry of just that - it's called IT, and I'm proud to say I'm not a part of it anymore.
That's just me, though. Some people like that, I suppose.
Re:You can't get there from here. (Score:3, Interesting)
If the "spec" is written in a precise enough language, there is no need for this "programmer" — get (or develop) a compiler or interpreter for the language once, and be done with it.
That's the theory. In practice, you, most likely, just aren't using a high-level enough [paulgraham.com] language [paulgraham.com]...
Re:You can't get there from here. (Score:4, Interesting)
Another business basic is that people have to have a skill that's in demand. There's plenty of demand for *experienced* software engineers. A place that hired me to do some perl programming last year told me they were searching for months. Months! Where are all the perl programmers? They hired me not because of my perl, which is just one of my skills, but because I know how to design, code, and test software at a senior level. Newbies just don't have that level of skill yet so they're not going to get hired very easily.
I suggest that newbies in the software field stop feeling sorry for themselves and complaining about how the American software market "sucks" and get on top of the technology and pick up some useful skills. Write a nice interactive website for your church or school pro bono, teach, write some open source software and get your name up on sourceforge.net. It's not that hard; it's called good old fashioned true grit. If you can demonstrate to companies that you are worth something to them, believe me you'll get hired. It also helps to join professional societies and show up at meetings; you develop leadership skills, you build up a network of colleagues, and long term it will pay off in job referrals.
This whole offshoring thing is overblown for several reasons. For one, all the good Indian engineers are hired already, and companies have discovered that near-shoring or local hiring has certain advantages. Like everything else, the pendulum swings and it moves into balance. Good luck to all who are starting out and don't let market conditions get you down; just get out there and pound the pavement and make your career happen.
Re:You can't get there from here. (Score:1, Interesting)
In 2001, I spent nearly four months in India visiting development 'centers' (mostly large homes turned into offices, some publicly listed in vast marble towers) and met with two dozen firms to try to find someone that we could work with.
I interviewed office managers, developers and owners. After examining the quality of their "ISO-certified" process and code, I told them all flatly that it was not adequate. Simple mistakes that would create an unmanageable mess post-haste. They responded by asking if I could help train their developers. I walked out.
I worked a few 'demo' projects and spent more time correcting their mistakes and meeting with project managers than it would have taken to develop the project myself. That, largely, was what I took from India. The first step towards the realization that I should be spending this time capitalizing on the development skills that I do have while I can.
That's where I am today, nearly 8 years of freelance, contract and no/low upfront pay development under my belt with projects that have turned several mid-sized niche companies around and more work than I could possible hope to handle.
The key is knowing to pick your clients carefully.
Don't bother with the man throwing cash around to get you to stay a few hours extra to add that glitzy feature. Take some of his money, but put your energy into retainers with niche companies that can't afford you (work it out--be creative, sign four and give a ~week to each), have a profitable business plan but too many steps, too much paperwork and a vision. You can turn them around and sometimes even earn yourself a piece of the pie (company) in the process.
This is your retirement and transition from code jockey to corporate hero. Your very own chunk of the American Dream ready for the taking before these offshore firms hire code jockeys like myself to bust their so-called developers into shape.
Because when we get done with them, it certainly will be over.
Re:You can't get there from here. (Score:2, Interesting)
That being said, they were "highly filtered" individuals such that the agency selected the better workers. Those who were less creative tended to work harder to compensate.
One thing about globalization is it increases a co's choice so that companies can be picky and pay low. I decided to try to get the hell out of IT, but decided I like programming enough that I find ways to stay in despite slack pay. I don't want to be a manager even though that is where the opportunities are.
Re:You can't get there from here. (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:You can't get there from here. (Score:3, Interesting)
But, THAT is what makes it great to work in IT today. You incorporate yourself, and consult/contract yourself out. If your good at what you do, you can make KILLER money, you get to write off all kinds of things on taxes (about the only way these days to keep much of your hard earned money), and you are basically your own boss. You also don't have to worry as much about becoming stagnant, outdated in skills and stuck in a dead end job since you move from job to job over the years. I think the negatives you point out are actually what is positive about IT today!!
"If a friend asked me if they should consider a degree or career in IT, I would not hesitate to warn them of the instability, irregular hours, low pay for skill and responsibility, lack of a future, and in general the bad past experiences I have had. "
Well, to make money, real money in IT....no, you cannot look upon it as a 'traditional' job, one where you work for the same company all your life, and retire on pension, etc. Heck, those type jobs don't really exist much at all in any field. There is no such thing as a job for life, or a loyal company/employee relationship any longer. You have to be willing to keep yourself up to date, and to go where the job is. If you get into the newer mindset, you can make a very healthy wage.....and your time is YOURS to take off when you want too. You don't have to wait till you've earned PTO hours. You make your bill rate high enough to cover you when you want time off...for vacations, family...whatever.
American Programming IS Software Engineering (Score:2, Interesting)
I guess the real question, though, is what field isn't going to be exposed to overseas competition? The only thing I could think of would be a Great Lakes Ship builder, or other professions protected by the Jones Act, but there aren't that many of those jobs out there, any more. Or, you could be in the military!